Russia's military presence at the Syrian port that provided its footprint in the Mediterranean is evaporating following the downfall of Bashar al-Assad, it has been reported, dealing a strategic blow for Vladimir Putin.
For more than five decades, Tartus had hosted a naval supply and maintenance base for Moscow and, as its only Mediterranean fueling spot, enabled the Kremlin to project power on the southern flank of NATO near Africa.
Military analysts said they saw the first signs Russia's withdrawal from the port city on December 3, although Moscow insisted it was engaged in exercises, as rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham staged lightning advances in Syria.
But on Sunday, as social media footage showed rebels reaching Tartus, Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate reported Russia had "withdrawn its warships" from the naval base and that the patrol ship Admiral Grigorovich and the dry cargo ship Engineer Trubin of the Northern Fleet had sailed.
Open-source intelligence analysts shared satellite imagery on Friday which suggested that the frigate Admiral Gorshkov and the auxiliary vessel Yelnya had likely headed home from the Mediterranean Sea.
Pro-Moscow military bloggers also reported on the withdrawal of Russian aircraft from the Khmeimim base in Syria's Latakia province in what the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said meant "major implications" for Moscow's military footprint.
"Russia's loss of the air base and the naval base in Syria is a potentially a big strategic setback, compounding the humiliation of being shown to be weak," Edward Lucas, senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis told Newsweek.
"They may able to retain something with the new regime, but the odds are they'll have to give up the only real Russian bases that are not contiguous with Russia."
"To get to Syria, the Russian Navy has to go through the Black Sea and through Turkey and through the Bosphorus," he said, "in terms of the Turkish-Russian relationship, Turkey is very much on the front foot now. If Russia survives with a presence in Syria, it will be thanks to [Turkish President Recep] Erdogan."
Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin via email for comment.
Pro-Russian military bloggers noted how rebels took control of the city of Jebla, in Latakia, which is located three miles from the Khmeimim Russian air base from where Moscow is looking to withdraw its aircraft and personnel.
Satellite imagery from Saturday shows three Ilyushin Il-76 and one Antonov An-124 military transport aircraft at the air base. Geolocated footage a day earlier showed Russian forces transporting S-300 or S-400 and Tor-M1 air-defense systems near Baniyas, less than 20 miles south of the Khmeimim base.
In its update Sunday, the ISW said the loss of Russia bases in Syria will disrupt Moscow's logistics and resupply efforts and weaken its operations in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa. Even if Moscow turned to Libya or Sudan as alternatives, their lack of infrastructure and formal agreements "makes them inadequate substitutes."
Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali said the new authorities would decide about the future of Moscow's military bases and the Russian Foreign Ministry insisted there was "no serious threat" to the safety of the sites.
However, whether Putin can maintain a military presence in his former ally could be out of his hands. "A lot will depend on what the new regime is like and whether they want to curry favor with the Americans and get over its jihadist extremist past," said Lucas.
"Chucking out the Russians would be a good way of making friends in Washington.
"It's not impossible that Putin hangs on and he'll probably offer this new regime a bit of support. He'll say, 'You're not talking to the Iranians, maybe we can be of assistance to you.'"
"But because of Russia's military weakness, I don't think that there's an awful lot that they can offer," Lucas added.
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