Summary
India exited Su-57 project due to cost concerns and CAATSA law impeding Russian military exports.
-
Algeria seems to have ordered Su-57, but the deal is uncertain amid lack of recent reports.
Iran plans to buy Su-35S to prepare for Su-57 despite complicated history with Russia and existing sanctions.
Russia's fifth-generation Su-57 Felon fighter jet has seen combat (if not timid combat) for years now in Ukraine, and it has become arguably the first fifth-generation fighter lost in combat (to a drone attack). At the end of 2023, it was reported that the Su-57 jet was ready for export. But will any country ever buy Russia's self-vaunted Felon? Three countries (Iran, India, and Algeria) are some of the few believed to have ordered or shown an interest in the jet (although there could be more).
India left the project in 2018
For some time, the Su-57 was a joint project between India and Russia, but eventually, India pulled out of the project. In 2007, India signed a contract for the Sukhoi with Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) to jointly develop a derivative of the jet (called the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft or FGFA). Cooperation increased in 2010, but by 2014, India started voicing concerns about the jet's cost, performance, and workshare.
Photo: Fasttailwind l Shutterstock
India then left the project in 2018, stating that the jet did not meet its requirements while also leaving open the possibility of purchasing the jet sometime in the future. Possibly influencing the decision was the US passing the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) passed in 2017. This law is used to impose sanctions on Russia's military exports.
| Project initiated: | 1999 |
| First flight: | 2010 |
| USA passes CAASTA: | 2017 |
| India exits program: | 2018 |
| Introduction: | 2020 |
| First foreign order: | 2020 (Algeria unconfirmed) |
| First combat loss: | 2024 (on the ground) |
While the US passed a waiver to allow India to purchase Russian S400 SAMs, it has successfully used the act to compel countries like Egypt (which had ordered Russian Su-35s) and Indonesia to cancel their deals to purchase Russian Su-35s. Russian fighter jet exports have collapsed partly due to CAASTA.
Since then, India has purchased French Rafales and moved to focus on ingenious production. In June 2024, the New Indian Express stated that "...India has made a policy switch to buy as many as 114 Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) only from a vendor who is ready to set up a manufacturing unit in India for the entire aircraft."
It also mentioned Dassault's Rafale, Boeing's Super Hornet F/A-18, SAAB's Gripen, Lockheed Martin's F-21, Russian MiG-35, and the Eurofighter Typhoon-the Su-57 was not mentioned. It seems increasingly unlikely that India will purchase the Su-57.
Algeria supposedly ordered Su-57s in 2020
Algeria is so far the only country that seems to have ordered the Su-57, but even this deal is murky. In November 2020, Times Aerospace reported that Algeria had been in active negotiations to purchase 12 to 14 Su-57s with the possibly of increasing the order to 24.
Algeria has long been a major military customer of Russia and is in intense competition with its neighboring (generally US-supplied) rival of Morocco. Algeria often has tense relations with the West and a very complicated history with France.
| Crew: | 1 |
| Mach speed: | Mach 2 |
| Radar cross-section: | 0.1 to 0.5 square meters (F-22 Raptor 0.0001 sq meters) |
| Service ceiling: | 66,000 feet |
| Hardpoints: | 12 (6 internal and 6 external) |
| Powerplant: | 2 × Saturn AL-41F1 afterburning turbofan |
In February 2021, Military Watch Magazine reported that Russia had confirmed export requests from potential foreign clients for the Su-57, widely believed to be Algeria. However, pre-February 2022 (the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine) is almost an eternity ago for the Russian defense industry. It is difficult to know if this deal is still alive or not and there appears to be little reporting on it.
Su-57s on Iran's wishlist
In November 2023, The Khaama Express reported the Iranian deputy defense minister Mahdi Farahi as saying Iran has finalized arrangements to purchase Russian Su-35S fighter jets and Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters (it is also planning to procure Russian Yak-130 jet trainers). The Su-35Ss are believed to be the 24 Su-35Ss built but undelivered for Egypt.
The Mahdi Farahi also stated that these jets would be a valuable tool for Iranian military pilots to acquire the necessary skills to operate advanced fighter aircraft, including the Su-57. This shows that Iran would like to purchase the Su-57 but does not show that it has or will or that Russia is willing to sell it to Iran. While Iran and Russia are cooperating closely now, they have historically had complicated relations, and Russia refused to export jets in the past).
The American act, CAASTA, has little effect on Iran as the country is already so heavily sanctioned. In short, Iran will likely buy whatever it can. Time will tell if the 2022 movie Top Gun: Maverick turns out to be prophetic or not.
Photo: Oleg Belyakov - Wikimedia Commons
The Su-35s will likely be the first advanced new fighter jets Iran has been able to buy since the revolution of 1979. Today, it operates old American jets like the F-4 Phantom II, Northrop F-5, and F-14 Tomcat that it received before the revolution (as well as locally produced reverse-engineered F-5s). It also has old Mirage F1s, MiG-24s, and Su-24s received from Iraq as the Iraqi Air Force fled the country for fear of the US destroying it in Operation Desert Storm and the 2003 Invasion of Iraq.
Comments